This is another draft season where people are thrilled to get the first pick so they can grab a running back who scored 20 TDs last year — and they’re despondent if they pick late. But do draft results back up the notion that the first slot is such a difference-maker? Are the PPR points per game from that slot so much better than the averages of the other slots?
Advertisement
No, they are not. In fact, the first slot would not even be my pick if I had first choice of any slot. Keep in mind we’re looking at just points per game to mute the impact of injuries, which tend to be random.
Looking back on five years of ADP data courtesy of FantasyData, the first round is regression alley. Granted, we should expect this, as we’re drafting the players typically who were dominant scorers the year before. Still, even if we know full well they’re going to score less, the odds are good they’ll score more than we can expect from the rest of the field.
If we chart the picks at each slot the past five years, we see that the first four slots average 19.5 PPR points per game the season the players are drafted; the middle four 17.7; and the last four 17.5. Interestingly, the No. 6 slot the past five years has averaged 21.7 points in the period — the highest of any position. So you can make a decent case that historically, at least in the past five years, the sixth slot is most desirable. Here are those slot averages from 2017-2021:
First round fantasy PPG, last 5 years
| PICK | PPR PPG |
|---|---|
1 | 21.3 |
2 | 16 |
3 | 20 |
4 | 20.8 |
5 | 17.3 |
6 | 21.7 |
7 | 15.1 |
8 | 16.7 |
9 | 16.8 |
10 | 19.3 |
11 | 18.8 |
12 | 15.2 |
The sixth pick is the only one that has outperformed prior year points — in other words, the player taken sixth scored 18.5 PPR PPG the year before versus 21.7 “this” year. The fourth and 11th slots have broken even. The 10th is break even, basically, and every pick in that slot the past five drafts has generally been a WR (there’s a lesson here).
Position-wise, the vast majority of first-round picks have been RBs. They are down about 9 percent in points per game. Wide receivers are not much better, down 8.3 percent.
The worst pick, by far, the past two years, measured by the points per game you draft versus what you get (aka the biggest bust position), has been No. 2 — down 31 percent on average.
Of course, regression must be expected, looking at the data. We’re probably not getting the type of return on a per-game basis that the player we drafted just delivered the season prior. The thing that makes you a first-round pick, especially one in the upper reaches of the round, also sets you up for a fall. Gravity, as the song says, always wins.
Advertisement
This year, I like being in the middle of the draft (Nos. 5, 6, 7). There’s not much expected regression (19.4 to 18.2), and you also have a crack at a running back who has a chance to be the No. 1 RB or the top wide receiver in the draft — if you feel that Ja’Marr Chase is basically in the same bucket as Cooper Kupp (which is reasonable).
(Top photo: Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57kmxtampkZXxzfJFrZmlwX2aDcK7ErKtmq5ykwW7AzmanopubYrOiutOaqrJllqS8ta7ApaNo